Ludovic Subran gives his take on the “House of Trump” to MEB entrepreneurs

Around 70 economic stakeholders in the Principality attended the talk by Ludovic Subran on the theme “United States at the foot of the wall”. It is the fifth time the economist has accepted the Monaco Economic Board’s invitation and once again his analysis was pithy and original.

The talk attracted members from a wide range of sectors, and was attended by Jean Castellini, Minister of Finance and the Economy, alongside the Junior Chamber of Commerce (JCEM), and was sponsored by Monaco Asset Management.

His entertaining and original view on the world’s leading economic power did not disappoint. For behind his talents as a speaker, Ludovic Subran is Chief Economist at Euler Hermes and Head of Macroeconomic Research at Allianz, leading players in the insurance sector. He has been applying his skills for over a decade to developing economic diagnoses and policies for some 30 countries, and his knowledge has become a reference for any international company operating abroad.

The audience were therefore eager to hear his views on the Trump era. For this economist, while the American president may have come to the White House on a wave of promises to overturn what had gone before, in the end he has achieved little. In his view the fault lies with Trump’s “inability to make the American political system work”. Referring to Trump’s failure to bring about symbolic reforms, such as ending Obamacare and other projects announced with such fanfare during the presidential campaign, he noted their very slow progress.

As a result, the United States has not been able to take full advantage of a favourable global economic context, with growth forecasts of 2% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018. This he believes is due to lack of credibility, as important as confidence, in the world’s largest economy which is the driving force behind its financing

Yet the Trump administration’s ineffectiveness is good news in a way, as it has put the brakes on the current White House tenant’s protectionist tendencies. Ludovic Subran also notes that the markets seem to have learned how to manage the often alarmist political “noise”, thereby reducing any risks to its economy.

Using eloquent figures and tables, the economist also highlighted challenges set by the new digital economy, opportunities that could arise in Europe as a result of a weakening American leadership, and risks due to potential geopolitical tensions. All were discussed with aplomb during the talk and afterwards at the networking cocktail.

Although the MEB does not foresee any actions in the short-term with the United States, delegates gained a deeper understanding of a country that, whatever happens, influences business around the world.

For those not able to attend, rest assured a date has already been set for next year.

*The Euler Hermes Group is the world’s leading provider of trade-related credit insurance in 60 countries, and in 2016 protected more than €890 billion of commercial transactions. Allianz, which belongs to Euler Hermes, is one of the world’s leading insurance groups that started in Germany and is now present in 70 countries employing 140,000 people, serving 86 million customers, with revenue in 2016 of €120 billion.