India more than China, USA more than Germany, Jean-Pierre Petit explains his choices to MEB members

MEB marked the end of summer holidays by inviting Jean-Pierre Petit, CEO of Cahiers Verts de l’Économie in partnership with Jutheau Husson to give a talk. In front of 120+ decision-makers he gave his expert analysis of the global situation and consequences for the economy. A fascinating presentation by a man passionate about his subject.

Since 2018, Monaco Economic Board and partner, insurance broker Jutheau Husson, have been delighted to be able to invite MEB members to an annual talk by Jean-Pierre Petit, CEO of Cahiers Verts de l’Économie. The company specialises in macroeconomic analysis and investment strategy advice and is behind a reference publication of the same name.

After a brief introduction, the economist in his trademark entertaining style mingled with the audience, challenging some, interrogating others, and always with good humour.

In his global overview, weighed down by threats (rise in extremism, inequalities, climate events, etc.), Jean-Pierre Petit praised USA’s good results underpinned by higher productivity, controlled inflation and an estimated 2.2% GDP growth in 2023 (1.1% in 2024), but the unpredictability of the upcoming elections are he says a big concern.

Less optimistic about Europe, the economist believes the continent is more handicapped by the crises gripping the world, starting with Ukraine which is having a more direct impact on inflation that looks set to reduce more slowly. Germany’s economic model again came under fire for its tough budgetary stance, although Europe he says is adapting and resisting, thanks mainly to Italy and France, “good news for Monaco”, beams Jean-Pierre Petit.

China is no longer the global powerhouse that it was with growth of 5.5% forecast for 2023 (4.2% in 2024), weighed down by excess capacity and a real estate sector in difficulty. On the other hand, the President of Cahiers Verts de l’Economie is betting on the continued rise in power of another Asian giant, India, which despite handicaps has a lot of potential.

An expert in investment advice, Jean-Pierre Petit was generous with his advice saying he was wary of the prevailing optimism regards a return of stock market prospects, even though the direction of travel is favourable. On AI which is very popular he believes “it adds nothing in terms of diversification compared to tech in general”.

At the end of a very comprehensive well-argued presentation, he answered questions, juggling figures with disconcerting ease for an audience who clearly benefited from this global macro-economic vision and left better armed to anticipate their strategy in the coming months.

Next up on the economic front is another erudite speaker, Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist of the Allianz Group, coming Monday 16 October to give his always astute interpretation.