Jean-Christophe Caffet: global economy heads towards stabilisation despite turbulence

On Tuesday, 11 February at the Novotel Monte-Carlo, the Monaco Economic Board (MEB), in partnership with Gramaglia Assurances and Banque Populaire Méditerranée, organised a conference with Jean-Christophe Caffet. The Chief Economist of Coface delivered his annual presentation to MEB members, sharing key insights from the prestigious Coface Country Risk Conference held the previous week in Paris.

Jean-Christophe Caffet opened the conference by highlighting the current geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the United States, where Donald Trump's election has introduced significant volatility. He compared this situation to a "grey rhinoceros" - an event that is both likely and disruptive, which we tend to ignore despite its visibility, thus requiring constant and increased vigilance.

Despite this uncertain context, the economist notes a stabilisation of global growth at approximately 2.7%, primarily driven by emerging countries, a trend that should continue into 2026. However, he warned against a laborious disinflation, particularly in Europe, where corporate margins are under pressure.

Europe continues to face significant challenges, with growth estimated at only 1% for 2025. Corporate failures are increasing, particularly in France and Italy, due to declining margins and persistently lagging productivity affecting industry in particular, but also due to regulatory and fiscal fragmentation.

In the United States, Trump's reforms, although potentially favourable in the short term, pose risks in the medium and long term, particularly regarding public debt. The contemplated protectionist measures and increased customs tariffs could indeed have global repercussions. These policies could complicate Chinese exports and, by extension, intensify competition in Asian and European markets.

At the end of his presentation, Jean-Christophe Caffet nevertheless expressed optimism to the 80 decision-makers presents, particularly regarding Europe. He noted a growing awareness of the urgency for reform, inspired by the Draghi report, and a shift in economic doctrine focusing on the consumer rather than the producer - an evolution which, in his view, is moving in the right direction.

Photo credits:MEB / P.H. Sébastien Darrasse