MEB - Monterra Wealth Management Conference: Christophe Barraud forecasts stabilised global growth despite the risks

On 14th May 2024, at the Novotel Monte-Carlo, in partnership with Monterra Wealth Management, the Monaco Economic Board (MEB) organised a conference with Christophe Barraud. The multi-award-winning forecaster, specialising in China, the United States, and the Eurozone, provided Monegasque entrepreneurs with a detailed analysis of the global economic situation and a positive outlook.

Regularly named the world's best forecaster by Bloomberg on his three favourite subjects (China, the United States, and the Eurozone), the Chief Economist and Strategist at Market Securities and Managing Director of the new Monegasque branch Market Securities Monaco delivered a clear yet fairly technical presentation to the hundred or so entrepreneurs in attendance.

To begin with, Christophe Barraud was quite reassuring: "Global growth is fairly resilient, and forecasts have been constantly revised upwards since October 2023". He is forecasting growth identical to 2023: +3.2%, i.e. 0.3 points higher than the consensus. Barring a major event, these figures could rise again in 2025.

The forecaster attributes this favourable trend to significant tax incentive policies, particularly in the world's two leading economies, and a European consumption recovery.

In China, the government's measures are beginning to have an impact (public investment is up by 7.4% compared with 2023). The black spot still penalising Chinese growth is residential property, which weighs on consumer morale and remains very low. The government has also taken numerous measures to encourage foreign investment, which is falling. Ultimately, growth is expected to be lower than in 2023 but close to the government's target of +5%.

In the United States, the trend is for a marked fall in consumption - mainly because all the household savings set aside during COVID-19 have been spent, and interest rates are currently very high. However, immigration and rising real incomes should help limit this fall's impact, as should the continuation of policies to support activity, such as the notorious Inflation Reduction Act.

Economic activity in the eurozone should pick up again from the first half of 2024 onwards, even though the manufacturing and property sectors are likely to remain an obstacle. A rebound in credit to the private sector, combined with excess savings and rising real wages, should support GDP growth. In addition, the Olympic Games should be a plus in the third quarter of 2024.

Christophe Barraud then set out his forecasts for central bank policies for the many specialists in the room. He anticipated a cut in Q3 from the Fed, but not beyond because of the elections. The ECB, meanwhile, could cut its key rates by 0.5 points further between now and the end of the year.

After a lively Q&A session, the speaker was reunited with his audience for a networking cocktail at the Novotel. During this cocktail, discussions with MEB members continued in a convivial atmosphere.

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More about Christophe Barraud: https://www.christophe-barraud.com

Find out more about our sponsor: https://www.monterra.mc/